Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday:
78 Lihue, Kauai
83 Honolulu, Oahu
83 Kahului, Maui
82 Kailua Kona
80 Hilo, Hawaii
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 843pm Thursday evening:
Kailua Kona – 79
Hilo, Hawaii – 71
Haleakala Summit – 43 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 34 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.
A few showers will fall, mostly along the windward
sides and around the mountains…with most areas
remaining quite pleasant into Friday
A long lasting trade wind weather pattern will
continue, with the trades in the moderately
strong realms for the most part through
Friday…although locally a bit stronger
A cold front is expected to arrive later Friday
into Saturday morning – which will bring strong
and gusty trade winds, with showers…especially
along our windward coasts and slopes – although
Small Craft Wind Advisory…all Hawaiian
channels and coastal waters – starting at
High Surf Advisory…for rising northwest
swell along the north and west shores of
Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, the north shores of
Maui, and the west shore of the Big Island –
starting noon Friday
Gale Watch…Major Channel waters, and a
few of the windiest coastal water areas –
starting Saturday morning
High Wind Watch…leeward areas this weekend
The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions…as of Thursday evening:
17 Port Allen, Kauai – W
32 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu – NNE
22 Molokai – NE
29 Lanai – NE
27 Kahoolawe – NE
28 Kahului AP, Maui – NE
28 Pali 2, Big Island – E
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Thursday evening (545pm totals):
0.09 Kilohana, Kauai
0.04 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.50 Puu Kukui, Maui
0.83 Upolu airport, Big Island
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Locally gusty trade winds through Friday, becoming stronger this weekend…continuing into the first day or two of next week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. Here’s a real-time wind profile of the central Pacific…centered on the Hawaiian Islands. ~~~ We see several storm low pressure systems far north of the state, with an associated cold front to our north and northwest. Meanwhile, we see a high pressure system to our northeast…with a ridge of high pressure located to our north. Finally, there’s surface trough of low pressure over the ocean to the north of Kauai. Our winds will be trades through the rest of this week, at more or less moderately strong levels through Friday…and then strengthen during the weekend. They will ease up some by the middle of next week.
Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies, with clouds scattered here and there in places…mostly along the windward sides and around the mountains. Here’s a looping radar image, showing generally light showers moving across the island chain…on the northeast trade wind flow. The bulk of these showers are concentrating their efforts from Oahu down through the Big Island…especially in a few areas around Maui County and the Big Island at the time of this writing. Looking at this larger satellite image, which is in the looping mode, we see our next approaching cold front to our northwest, which will reach Kauai later tomorrow…and then work its way down into the state into Saturday.
Generally fine weather, sunny and quite dry conditions along our leeward beaches today into Friday. We’ll see a new frontal cloud band arrive later tomorrow into Saturday. This front will usher in strong and gusty trade winds, and a period of showers…especially along our windward sides. The latest models suggest that these blustery trades will continue into next week…although mellow-out some starting next Tuesday or Wednesday. I’ll be back early Friday morning with your next new weather update, from what will soon be windy Hawaii, I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Here on Maui, at the 3,100 foot elevation, at my upper Kula, Maui weather tower, the air temperature was 52.9 degrees at 6am on this Thursday morning. Now at 630am, when the sky has got light enough for me to see out, there are mostly clear skies overhead. There are the usual clouds over along the windward sides, although not that many at the moment. There’s probably a few light showers falling over there, although it doesn’t look very wet to me. There’s the usual capping clouds over the West Maui Mountains too, which look very normal…during a well established trade wind pattern like we have going on now. All an all, it’s a really nice looking morning, with an air temperature at the time of this writing, of 52.3 degrees. I anticipate that our weather will remain very pleasant right on into Friday, albeit on the windy side locally.
~~~ It’s now mid-morning here on Maui, at 1020am, with almost completely clear skies, like 95%…another really nice day! It’s warmed up to 68 degrees here in Kula, while Kahului, just 22 minutes down the mountain, is up to 78 now. The winds are gusting up to near 30 mph in Kahului at the same time, with the strongest gust anywhere in the state, near sea level, approaching 40 mph. The mountain summits here on Maui, and especially over on the Big Island, are stronger…up over 60 mph on the Big Island. Strong winds will be our headline weather news this weekend!
~~~ We’re into the early afternoon now, at 1230pm, under these mostly sunny skies, and light breezes, at least here in Kula. The air temperature was a near perfect 70.2 degrees…compared to the 82 degree reading down at the Kahului airport at the same time. It’s one of those very special days here in the islands, that is if your preference is to have warm sunny skies. Personally, I can go either way, as I love rainy weather as much as I like the warmth of a late winter day!
~~~ It’s now early evening here on Maui, at 540pm, under partly cloudy skies, light winds, and an air temperature of 70.7 degrees. I just got back from working with a friend up at the 3600 foot elevation here in Kula. We did some wood work in his garage, and it ended up raining lightly a couple of times. I just asked my neighbor if it had rained here, and he said not a drop…even though I was just a couple of miles away.
As I’ve been writing about this last week or so, we’re going to get windy this weekend. The NWS office has a gale watch up for the major channels, and around certain waters around the Big Island too – starting Saturday morning. This means that we may see winds gusting up over 50 mph later Saturday into Sunday. Perhaps it may not be too early to begin thinking about what could be moved around by this air in a hurry, like lawn furniture or whatever…and securing it ahead of time.
By the way, I’ll be heading out on vacation a week from today, and return in April…I wanted to give you heads up in advance. Be clear though, all daily updated forecasts for everywhere in the state will remain available in my absence.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
Atlantic Ocean: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
Gulf of Mexico:
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Eastern Pacific: The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Central Pacific Ocean: The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
North Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Antarctic ecosystem due to change radically with climate changes – According to researchers the Ross Sea will “be extensively modified by future climate change” in the coming decades creating longer periods of ice-free open water and affecting life cycles of all components of the ecosystem in a paper published and funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF). The researchers have drawn their information from the Regional Ocean Modeling System, a computer model that evaluates sea-ice, ocean, atmosphere and sea-shelf.
While conceding that “predicting future changes in ecosystems is challenging,” the researchers note in a paper published in Geophysical Research Letters, the changes predicted by the computer model have the potential to create “significant but unpredictable impacts on the ocean’s most pristine ecosystem.”
The wind and temperature changes, the authors note, will affect the ecological balance at the base of the Antarctic food web–including changes in distributions of algae, shrimp-like krill and Antarctic silverfish–which, in turn, may be expected to cause disruptions in the upper portions of the food web, including penguins, seals and whales, which depend on those species for food.
A team of four researchers from the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) at the College of William and Mary and the Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Va., jointly authored the paper.
Walker O. Smith, Jr., a professor at VIMS and the lead author of the study, said: “The model suggests that the substantial changes in the physical setting of the Ross Sea will induce severe changes in the present food web, changes that are driven by global climate change. Without a doubt the Ross Sea 100 years from now will be a completely different system than we know today.”
The researchers note that over the last 50 years the distribution and extent of Antarctic sea ice, or ice that floats on the ocean surface, have drastically changed. Among these changes are a documented decrease of sea ice in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen sector, but an increase of sea ice in the Ross Sea sector of Antarctica.
Observations show, they write, that “the duration of ice-free days on the Ross Sea continental shelf has decreased by over two months over the past three decades,” which may have had effects on the current balance of biological productivity and the roles of various creatures and microscopic plants in the ocean ecosystem.
But, they also note, “future projections of regional air temperature change, however, suggest that substantial warming will occur in the next century in the Ross Sea sector” while wind speeds are predicted to increase in some areas while decreasing in others.
“These changes are expected to reverse the sea-ice trends in the future; however the projected changes in heat content on the continental shelf and ecosystems dynamics that will occur as a result of such changes remain far from certain.”
The model, however, indicates that summer sea ice in the Ross Sea could decrease by more than half, or 56 percent, by 2050 and by more than three-quarters, or 78 percent, by 2100. At the same time, the summer mixing of shallow and deep waters in the region as a result of other changes is expected to decrease.
While increased open water would benefit diatoms, the preferred food source of many plant-eating predators such as krill, some krill species, such as crystal krill, prefer a habitat with more ice, which they use as a refuge from predators.
In turn, minke whales, Adelie and Emperor penguins and crabeater seals that feed on crystal krill would have less food available if the crystal krill population were reduced.
With less sea-ice cover, however, more humpback whales could enter the Ross Sea in the summer, increasing krill predation. Adelies, which prey on silverfish at the ice edge, would have to travel further from their nests and, as a result, be potentially more vulnerable to leopard seal predation.
While it is difficult to know specifically what changes the Ross Sea ecosystem will see, the model predictions, if they are accurate, suggest that they are likely to be far-reaching.
“Regardless of the exact nature of the alterations,” the researchers write, “substantial portions of the food web that depend on ice in their life cycles will be negatively impacted, leading to severe ecological disruptions.”