Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday:
76 Lihue, Kauai
80 Honolulu, Oahu
82 Kahului, Maui
82 Kailua Kona
77 Hilo, Hawaii
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 743pm Thursday evening:
Kailua Kona – 78
Hana, Maui - 68
Haleakala Summit – 43 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 36 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.
Our attention is now on the next cold front approaching from
the northwest – which will bring wet weather, and possible
flooding rainfall to the state late Friday… through the
weekend into early Monday morning – first on Kauai and
Winds are veering to the southeast – and will become south to
southwest Friday into Saturday…with areas of volcanic haze
The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions…as of Thursday evening:
21 Mana, Kauai – SE
18 Kii, Oahu – SE
23 Molokai – ESE
14 Lanai – SW
32 Kahoolawe – NE
22 Kula 1, Maui – NW
27 South Point, Big Island – NE
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Thursday evening (545pm totals):
.02 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
.17 Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
.20 Puu Kukui, Maui
.85 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Generally light to moderately strong southeast winds…which are bringing volcanic haze to our skies locally. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. Here’s a real-time wind profile of the central Pacific…centered on the Hawaiian Islands. ~~~ We find low pressure systems far northwest, north and northeast of the state, with associated cold fronts trailing to the south..one of which moved through the state yesterday, and is offshore to the east of the Big Island. There’s another cold front approaching to our northwest, which will be more dynamic that the last several that have pushed down through our area. Meanwhile, we see a high pressure system moving by just to the north of the state. Winds will generally be light to moderately strong, and are quickly shifting to the southeast. This will be followed by muggy south to southwest winds Friday…ahead of this next stronger cold front during the weekend. Our winds will lighten up as we move into the first part of next week, likely from the cool north and northeasterly directions…gradually becoming trade winds.
Satellite imagery shows a few cloud patches around the state, although skies remain quite clear in many areas. We find a stable air mass has moved in over the state, in the wake of our last cold front. There will be areas of low clouds around tonight, although not many showers will fall. There are some cloud patches from the recent cold front, being drawn up into the state locally…which may bring some isolated showers to Oahu and Kauai. This relatively dry and stable atmosphere won’t last long however, with another weather change arriving over the next couple of days. Here’s the looping radar image, showing very minor shower activity in only a few places…with generally dry conditions prevailing elsewhere. Looking at this larger satellite image, which is in the looping mode, we can see the next more impressive frontal cloud band, those bright whiter clouds, are steadily moving east and southeast towards our islands.
Generally pleasant weather prevailed Thursday, with further warming expected Friday…then wet weather slated for this weekend. This next cold front will approach the state from the northwest Friday into the weekend. This strong weekend frontal boundary will reach Kauai and Oahu first on Saturday, although pre-frontal showers will likely precede it on those islands. The front will then push down to Maui County later Saturday into the night, as it slows its pace…before finally bringing precipitation to the Big Island Sunday into Monday. The primary concern with this cold front, as opposed to the last several, is the slow pace it will take as it migrates over our area. The slower the front, the more chance it has to drop heavy rainfall on us…which could lead to flooding problems. Weather early next week should mellow-out quite a bit, with generally fair conditions along our leeward beaches, and some passing showers along our windward coasts and slopes. I don’t see any more cold fronts, after this weekend’s event, out through the end of next week. I’ll be back early Friday morning (if my internet connectivity is working…it has been hit and miss the last two days) with your next new weather narrative, I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Here on Maui, at the 3,100 foot elevation, at my upper Kula, Maui weather tower, the air temperature was a very chilly 47.8F degrees at 610am on this Thursday morning. It’s still of course too dark for me to see what’s going on here on Maui this morning, although one thing I DO KNOW at the moment…and that’s the fact that it’s a cold morning! It’s one of our coldest mornings of the winter so far, and as always under such circumstances, I’m covered with down feathers to keep me warm.
~~~ It’s now 10am under clear skies, with light breezes, and a warmer 61.5 degrees here in Kula. I just made my morning organic black tea, put it in a container, and am about ready to take a drive up the mountain. I’ll go up there and enjoy this incredibly clear morning, taking full advantage of being in between cold fronts. I’m packin’ my skateboard of course, and my cell phone, in case I want to do some texting with friends, or make a call or two from up there. I’ll be back in a couple of hours, by early afternoon with your next update. I’m still kind of buzzing from that great Ballet performance last night, and wanna move my body!
~~~ Just so you know, I’ve had no internet connectivity all day, until just now…and it’s only hit and miss at this point! So, it may disappear on me again at any point. It’s now 5pm, under clear to partly cloudy skies, with a light southeast breeze, 69.6 degrees…and increasingly voggy skies.
~~~ We’re into the evening hours now, at 605pm, under mostly clear skies, with thick vog now over us! The winds has dropped off to almost calm here in Kula, with an air temperature of 67.3 degrees. I want to mention again that my internet connectivity has been sporadic the last couple of days, and if I somehow disappear, know I’m trying to get back online. At any rate, the vog has really thickened here this evening, in response to the southeast winds, which are carrying this haze up over the smaller islands…from the vents on the Big Island. I looks as if this stuff will be a part of our weather conditions for awhile. The main event however, the headline weather news, continues to be focused on the arrival of this next potent cold front. As I was mentioning above, the main threat won’t be the winds, but rather the potential for flooding heavy rainfall…at least in places. The latest word is that late this coming weekend may be the most intense part of this upcoming wet weather situation.
As you might know, I went to a Ballet performance Wednesday evening in Wailuku. It was the Aspen Santa Fe Ballet, and here’s the writeup: Aspen Santa Fe Ballet’s bold vision – top global choreographers, distinctive groundbreaking works, and virtuoso dancers – has fostered a jewel of a dance company in the American West and beyond. For 16 years, the company has served as a prestigious incubator and showcase for choreographic invention, to both popular and critical acclaim. “Dynamic, virtuostic, endurance testing, full-throttle dancing and up-to-the-minute ballet choreography.” (Santa Fe New Mexican) With former Joffrey Ballet principal Tom Mossbrucker as artistic director, this vibrant company is known for “expressiveness, stylistic panache, and huge sense of fun.” (Dance Magazine) “Simply breathtaking,” says the Chicago Sun Times, and World Dance Review proclaims that “Aspen Santa Fe Ballet has become a must-see company.” Here’s a youtube dance video of this Company. I went to see this with my friend Dr. David Kern, and neither of us had seen a ballet performance in quite a while.
As it turned out, we both enjoyed this presentation, exclaiming that it was entertaining in a unique way. I for one don’t take in these kinds of experiences very often, and I might add…not often enough. Being there reminded me how much fun it is to be out in public in this way. The theater was jam packed full, with what looked like every seat in the house taken. We had very good seats, in row G, which was quite close to the stage. It was amazing to see just how flexible the human body can be, as shown by these amazingly talented men and women up on stage. Here’s another dance video of theirs. I’m going to be watching for more evenings that I can spend doing these kinds of cultural events. I tend to spend so much time at home, perhaps because I’m a Cancer, in the astrological realms…known for their tendency to naturally stick pretty close to the home front.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
Atlantic Ocean: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
Gulf of Mexico:
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Eastern Pacific: The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Central Pacific Ocean: The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Could sharks help researchers predict hurricanes? – During a casual game of golf in 2010, marine biologist Jerry Ault mentioned his latest research project to friend and colleague, Nick Shay. The two are professors at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science, but their work rarely, if ever, overlaps. Ault tracks the behavior and migratory patterns of marine animals, while Shay studies the waters those animals inhabit.
Ault was just making conversation, but the comment led to research that could change the way forecasters predict the severity of hurricanes and tropical storms.
Since 2001, Ault’s research team has been tagging fish, primarily tarpon, with satellite-linked sensors that measure ocean temperature, depth, light level and salinity. The university also started tagging sharks in 2010.
Looking at the data, they noticed an interesting pattern: as they migrate, tarpon follow a line of water that is 79 degrees. That’s when Shay’s ears perked up.
The ocean temperature these fish were following – 79 degrees – matches the lower bound temperature for tropical storms.
“The animals were tracking the primary metric that was critical for [Shay’s] work,” Ault tells CBS News.
That measure is ocean heat content, the energy in the ocean that’s available to be drawn up into the storm. Knowing how much ocean heat content is available is critical in predicting the severity of a storm.
Currently, researchers send piloted aircrafts into the storms. The storm chasers drop a dropsonde — 16-inch tube filled will temperature, pressure and humidity measuring tools — into the storm. In July 2013, NOAA also started using GPS to measure wind speeds.
By using data sent back from fish and sharks that are already in the area, the information is available faster, cheaper and in a safer manner.
“These things can talk to us in near-real time through satellites,” says Ault. “[Forecasters] can update their models a lot faster with high-res information that’s actually there, if they are not dependent on the time lags and costs of having to go out there in the airplanes and drop these sensors.”
So far, the UM team has equipped more than 750 sharks, tarpon, tuna and billfish with the tags.
“They’re the boots on the ground,” assistant professor Neil Hammerschlag told CBS News. “They’re able to make precise measurements that can be used by these forecasters. The cool part is that these animals all live and occupy different habitats and areas, so it allows you to monitor deeper water, different areas.”
All together, the tagged fish are helping the researchers at UM monitor a range of depths in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.
The tags cost about $4,000 each. (That price does not include the time that the researchers spend trying to safely catch the fish and attach the sensors, which can prove difficult.) They release data every time the fish or shark comes near or through the surface.
Their current data set is interesting, but it is still in a very early stage. The scope is not nearly large enough yet to reliably predict storm patterns – that would require tagging thousands of marine animals. UM is currently seeking funding from government and private sources to expand the research.
Another interesting use for the data could be monitoring when the sharks or fish leave their normal areas.
That’s because many sharks, such as nurse sharks, leave the area when air and water pressure starts dropping ahead of a storm, as reported by The Telegraph in 2008. If the fleeing sharks are wearing satellite-linked tags, their actions could serve as an important early-warning system. Ault and Hammerschlag said these behavioral patters have not been studied enough to draw a conclusion on this application of the technology.
Researchers have tried other ways of monitoring ocean temperature patterns, with limited success. In 2012, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration started using underwater “glider” drones to measure ocean heat. But despite their $200,000 price tag, the gliders can’t move quickly and they’re no match against ocean currents.