Hawaiian Islands Weather details & Aloha Paragraphs January 3-4, 2014

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday:

77  Lihue, Kauai
79  Honolulu, Oahu
76  Molokai
81  Kahului, Maui
78  Kona, Hawaii
79  Hilo, Hawaii

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 1043pm Friday evening:

Kaneohe, Oahu – 73
Port Allen, Kauai – 63

Haleakala Summit –   41 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 30 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

This cold front is bringing generally light showers to parts of Maui
County and the Big Island – cooler weather arriving in the wake
of the fronts passage, with improving conditions arriving from
west to east…into the weekend

>The extended forecast calls for showers to fall, some heavy
with thunderstorms and flooding over the Big Island end
of the island chain late Sunday into early Tuesday…this
could be a serious threat – stay tuned. We may see continued
rainfall along the windward sides for several days beyond that.

>Looking even further ahead, there’s a chance that we could see
a Kona low pressure system setting up shop just to the west of
the state later next week, these are infamous for bringing
strong winds and rainy weather to our islands…stay tuned.

Small Craft Wind Advisory…Kauai, Oahu, and Maui County
coastal and channel waters – through 6pm Sunday

Wind Advisory…the Big Island summits through 6am Saturday –
45-55 mph winds with higher gusts

High Surf Advisory…for north and west shores of Kauai,
Oahu, and Molokai – and north shores of Maui and the
Big Island through 6pm Sunday

Real time wind profile, centered on Hawaii…showing the
south to southwest Kona winds along and ahead of the
cold front – north to northwest winds in the wake of the
cold front. We can also see the counter-clockwise
circulation of the parent low pressure system to the
front…well north of Hawaii.

The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Friday evening:

31  Lihue, Kauai – NNW
35  Waianae Valley, Oahu – NW
22  Molokai – NW
29  Lanai – NW
27  Kahoolawe – NNE
24  Kapalua, Maui – N
18  PTA Keamuku, Big Island – SE

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Friday evening (845pm totals):

1.09  Kilohana, Kauai
2.58  St. Stephens, Oahu
3.68  Molokai
1.40  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
4.41  Kaupo Gap, Maui
1.97  Kohala Ranch – Big Island

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Our winds will be blowing from the northwest and north in the wake of the recent cold frontal passage. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the Pacific Ocean. ~~~ We find a high pressure system far to the northeast of the state, and far to the west-northwest of the islands. At the same time, we see a deep storm low pressure system well to our north, with its associated cold front stalling near Big Island.

The cold front is near or over the Big Island, and is slowing down its progress southeastward. Satellite imagery shows the back edge of the cold fronts clouds over Maui County, with the front edge just to the east and southeast of the Big Island. The fronts showers continue to fall across the Big Island, after already passing across Kauai, Oahu, and Maui County. Here’s the looping radar image, showing these showers falling locally over Maui County, across the Alenuihaha Channel…stretching over the Big Island. Looking at this larger satellite image, which is in the looping mode, we can see the cold front slowing way down, with its showery clouds being drawn up from the deeper tropics…moving over the eastern islands.

It appears that an upper level low pressure system, with its very cold air aloft, will destabilize our atmosphere later Sunday into the first part of the new week ahead. The moisture left over from the recent cold front may interact with the arrival of this cold pool aloft. If these weather features combine forces in just the right way, they could produce large amounts of rain…especially for the Big Island and potentially Maui County. At that time, the trade winds should have returned by then, so likely the better part of this potentially heavy rainfall would end up on the windward sides. We could see considerable thunderstorm activity at that time too, which would be unusual. The cold air aloft would likely bring lots of snow to the summits on the Big Island as well. Stay tuned on this prospect. If the models stick to their guns on this forecast, there could be a major flooding event for the Big Island…which certainly doesn’t need it! I will be monitoring this situation very closely. Looking even further ahead, towards next weekend already, the models are suggesting that we could have quite a storm brewing in our area, which would bring windy and rainy weather our way again then, again…stay tuned for that too. ~~~ I’ll be back again early Saturday morning with your next new weather narrative, I hope you have a great Friday night wherever you happen to be spending it. Aloha for now…Glenn.

>I like this music video, it somehow fit (in an abstract sort of way) with our rough ocean, and the rainy cold front that raced down through the state – full screen is best for viewing

Friday evening Film: This time I’m going to see another rather edgy film, like what I saw last Friday, which was American Hustle. Tonight I’ll join my neighbors in seeing one called The Wolf of Wall Street, starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonah Hill, Jean Dujardin, Rob Reiner, Matthew McConaughey, Kyle Chandler, Margot Robbie, Christin Milioti, Christine Eber-sole, Shea Whigham, among many others. The synopsis: This is the true story of the outlandish rise and non-stop pleasure-hunting descent of Jordan Belfort, the New York stockbroker who, along with his merry band of brokers, makes a gargantuan fortune by defrauding investors out of millions. Belfort transforms from a righteous young Wall Street newcomer to a thoroughly corrupted stock-pumper and IPO cowboy. Having quickly amassed an absurd fortune, Jordan pumps it back into an endless array of aphrodisiacs: women, Quaaludes, coke, cars, his supermodel wife and a legendary life of aspiration and acquisition without limits. But even as Belfort’s company, Stratton Oakmont, soars sky-high into extremes of hedonistic gratification, the SEC and the FBI are zeroing in on his empire of excess.~~~I must admit, this all sounds rather fun, although the critics are a bit less enthused I see. I’ve learned to not pay all that much attention to the reviews, as this film is coming in around the 75-80 out of 100 mark…not too bad. I mean lets face it…when is the last time Martin Scorsese made a bad film!? One more thing, this film runs a full 3 hours long…I believe it will be the longest I’ve ever seen. ~~~ I’ll of course let you know what I thought Saturday morning, and here’s a trailer, in cause you’d like to take a peek.



World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

Atlantic Ocean: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea:

Gulf of Mexico:

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Eastern Pacific: The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Interesting:  New analysis of 28-years of satellite imagery has shown that mangrove forests have been expanding northward along the Atlantic coast of Florida for the last few decades. While one might assume that this may be occurring because of a general warming trend, researchers are claiming that this northern expansion is likely because cold snaps there are becoming a thing of the past.

Study lead author Kyle Cavanaugh, a postdoctoral researcher at Brown University and at the Smithsonian Institution states: “One unique aspect of this work is that we were able to use this incredible time series of large-scale satellite imagery to show that this expansion is a regional phenomenon. It’s a very large-scale change.”

Cavanaugh and his colleagues tested various hypotheses by correlating the satellite observations with reams of other data. What emerged from their tests of statistical significance was the area’s decline in the frequency of days where temperature dips below minus 4 C (25 F). That, not coincidentally, is a physiological temperature limit of mangrove survival.

For the analysis, the research team had to rule out increases in mean annual or winter temperatures as well as changes in precipitation and changes in nearby urban and agricultural landcover. They also ruled out sea level rise.

Instead seemingly subtle differences from 1984 through 2011 of just 1.4 fewer days a year below 25 F in Daytona Beach or 1.2 days a year in Titusville appear to explain as much as a doubling of mangrove habitat in those areas.

As a result of the mangroves’ northern expansion, Cavanaugh says, “The mangroves are expanding into and invading salt marsh, which also provides an important habitat for a variety of species.”

The next question is to understand how these changes affect the lives and interactions of the species in each ecosystem.

The findings are published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.