Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday:
75 Lihue, Kauai
77 Honolulu, Oahu
79 Kahului, Maui
79 Kona, Hawaii
77 Hilo, Hawaii
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 830pm Thursday evening:
Kailua Kona – 75
Hana, Maui - 63
Haleakala Summit – 36 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 34 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.
Gradually lowering surf along our local beaches…rising again
Cool north to northeasterly breezes – with dry and generally
fine weather into the weekend
There’s a good chance we’ll see another period of showers with
the next cold front Sunday, and cool north to northeast
breezes into Monday…accompanied by a pretty good
amount of windward showers for a few days thereafter
Small Craft Advisory...coastal and channel waters
High Surf Warning…north and west shores of Kauai –
north shores of Oahu, Molokai, and Maui – west shores
of Oahu, Molokai and west shores of the Big Island
High Surf Advisory…north shores of the Big Island
The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Thursday evening:
20 Port Allen, Kauai – W
23 Waianae Harbor, Oahu – WNW
09 Molokai – N
12 Lanai – W
17 Kahoolawe – SE
10 Kaupo Gap, Maui – SE
24 Kealakomo, Big Island – E
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Thursday evening (545pm totals):
0.01 Waialae, Kauai
0.04 Waianae Valley, Oahu
0.01 Puu Kukui, Maui
0.38 Kapapala Ranch, Big Island
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Our winds will be light to moderately strong, cool too…coming in generally from the north to northeast. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. Here’s a real-time wind profile of the central Pacific…centered on the Hawaiian Islands. ~~~ We find a near 976 millibar storm low pressure system to the north, with its associated cold front trailing behind it to our north and northwest. At the same time, we have a weak, near 1015 millibar high pressure cell to the west, which is moving in our direction. These weather features will keep our winds on the light side through the next several days, although locally a bit stronger in gusts…especially later Saturday from the southwest.
Satellite imagery shows just patchy low level clouds over some parts of the island chain…and over the offshore waters. The air mass over the state now, after yesterdays wet weather, is dry and on the cool side…which will continue to limit showers greatly. Here’s the looping radar image, showing hardly any precipitation anywhere in the state, or over the offshore waters. Looking at this larger satellite image, which is in the looping mode, we can see the recent cold front moving away from the state…with those brighter white clouds to our north and northwest…evaporating before arriving over our area.
Meanwhile, looking ahead into the weekend, we’ll find generally fine, dry weather…although with cooler than normal air temperatures prevailing through Saturday morning. We’ll see the next cold front arriving early Sunday morning into next Monday, bringing another round of showers to the state. This next front will usher in a period of wet trade winds, with the bulk of that precipitation remaining anchored to the north and east facing windward coasts and slopes. The south and west facing leeward areas will find a few showers, generally on the smaller islands of Oahu and Kauai…although with better weather in general. This relatively cool, and wet showery situation will likely last from next Monday into the middle of the week. ~~~ I’ll have your next new weather narrative reading for you early Friday morning. By the way, keep that sweater handy, and that extra blanket on the bed tonight! I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you’re spending it. Aloha for now…Glenn.
Here on Maui early this morning, at the 3,100 foot elevation, at my upper Kula weather tower, the outdoor air temperature sensor was reading 43.9F degrees! I just heard from a friend down in Maui Meadows (upper Kihei), where it was 62 degrees at the same time. Our skies are clear, with a good looking day coming up, although as I was mentioning above, cooler than normal…even for this time of year here in the tropics. In contrast, and just 20 minutes down the mountain from here, it was 71 degrees at the Kahului airport…right on the ocean. The coolest sea level location around the state at about the same time, was 55 degrees at Port Allen, Kauai. ~~~ It’s now early afternoon here in Kula, with my thermometer reading 61 degrees, which isn’t exactly warm. I anticipate that temperatures, even down at sea level, will remain in the 70’s today. As the sun goes down, the temperatures will plummet, tropically speaking that is, and zooming down into the 50-60’s by early Friday morning. ~~~ Looking down the mountain from here in Kula this afternoon, I can see the very large waves breaking along the north shore…and the marine haze that’s it causing in our atmosphere too. ~~~ Looking down into the central valley early this evening, I see rather thick haze, and it actually looks more like vog, than marine haze. The air temperature at my weather tower, at around 530pm, was a relatively chilly 61.5 degrees…and feels like its getting ready to dive into the 50’s very soon. Oops, here at 630pm it had dropped to 57.2 degrees. I expect Friday morning to have temperatures in the 40Fs again…brrrr!
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
Atlantic Ocean: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
Gulf of Mexico:
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Eastern Pacific: The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Central Pacific Ocean: The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Human response to climate – Throughout history, humans have responded to climate. Take, for example, the Mayans, who, throughout the eighth and 10th centuries, were forced to move away from their major ceremonial centers after a series of multi-year droughts, bringing about agricultural expansion in Mesoamerica, and a clearing of forests. Much later, in the late 20th century, frequent droughts caused the people of Burkina Faso in West Africa to migrate from the dry north to the wetter south where they have transformed forests to croplands and cut the nation’s area of natural vegetation in half.
Such land transformations, while necessary to ensure future crop productivity, can themselves have large ecological impacts, but few studies have examined their effects. To that end, a Princeton University research team has created a model to evaluate how a human response to climate change may alter the agricultural utility of land. The study, featured in Conservation Biology, provides a readily transferable method for conservation planners trying to anticipate how agriculture will be affected by such adaptations.
“Humans can transform an ecosystem much more rapidly and completely than it can be altered by shifting temperature and precipitation patterns,” said Lyndon Estes, lead author and associate research scholar in the Woodrow Wilson School of International and Public Affairs. “This model provides an initial approach for understanding how agricultural land-use might shift under climate change, and therefore which currently natural areas might be converted to farming.”
A Princeton University research team has created a readily transferable method for conservation planners trying to anticipate how agriculture will be affected by such adaptations. They tested their model by studying South Africa’s wheat and maize production in an area projected to be vulnerable to climate change.
Before determining how climate change could impact the crops, the team first needed to determine which areas have been or might be farmed for maize and wheat. They created a land-use model based on an area’s potential crop output and simulated how much of each crop was grown from 1979 to 1999 – the two decades for which historical weather data was available. They also calculated the ruggedness of each area of land, which is related to the cost of farming it. Taking all factors into account, the model provides an estimate of whether the land is likely to be profitable or unprofitable for farming.
To investigate any climate-change impacts, the team then examined the production of wheat and maize utilizing 36 different climate-response scenarios taking into account the many possible future climates and the crops response to rising levels of carbon dioxide.