Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday:
83 Lihue, Kauai
84 Honolulu, Oahu
85 Kahului, Maui
85 Kona, Hawaii
80 Hilo, Hawaii
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 730pm Tuesday evening:
Kailua Kona – 81
Hilo, Hawaii – 72
Haleakala Summit – 46 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 36 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions. Here’s the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui – if it’s working.
Variable clouds with showers falling at times
The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Tuesday evening:
27 Waimea Heights, Kauai, Kauai – ENE
39 Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
31 Molokai – NE
36 Lanai – NE
33 Kahoolawe – ENE
31 Kahului, Maui – NE
28 Kamuela airport, Big Island – NE
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday evening:
1.23 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.31 Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
1.97 Puu Kukui, Maui
0.66 Hilo airport, Big Island
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Our local trade winds will be moderately strong, becoming lighter Friday into the weekend…then rebounding Sunday into early next week. Here’s a weather chart showing a very large and expansive, near 1034 millibar high pressure center to the northeast of our islands. This high pressure system has an elongated ridge of high pressure extending southwest…far offshore to the northwest of our islands.
There will be showers falling along our windward sides, which should become somewhat heavier, at least locally…Wednesday through Friday. Satellite imagery shows lower level clouds over and around the islands. There’s also brighter white, higher level clouds over the islands in places, and over the offshore waters in most directions too. Here’s the looping radar image, showing generally light to moderately heavy showers over the offshore waters…being carried to our windward sides on the trade wind flow. The shower activity has backed-off some today, at least in terms of intensity…although should increase again later Wednesday into Thursday.
We find an upper level low pressure system nearing Kauai…which will stick around our area over the next couple of days. It looks as if this low pressure system will try to set up shop in our area for another 5-6 days. This will keep our atmosphere relatively unstable, keeping some parts of the state more shower prone than normal. As this low shifts a bit eastward over the next 2-3 days, we should see the shower activity, which has been somewhat limited lately…increase again. As the low moves east, our winds will begin to shift from the current moderately strong realms, to lighter levels Friday and Saturday. These lighter breezes will prompt convective clouds to grow over the islands, leading to tall cloud buildups, and locally heavy showers…over the leeward slopes during the afternoon hours. The trade winds will become stronger again by Sunday into early next week, perhaps ushering in a wet trade wind pattern for several days. I’ll be back with your next new weather narrative early Wednesday morning, I hope you have a great Tuesday night wherever you happen to be spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclone
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY FRIDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclone
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Eastern Pacific: Tropical depression 14E (Narda) is active over the northeast Pacific. Here’s a NHC graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC
Interesting: Climate Change and Water Scarcity – Using a novel methodological approach, scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have introduced new estimates on how climate change will affect water availability.
Access to freshwater in Africa and the Middle East is known to be scarce, but the Siberian tundra and Indian grasslands also lack freshwater. These areas along with dry pockets across the globe are expected to expand and create implications for their habitats and communities.
The new study predicts that if global warming is limited to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, 500 million people could be subject to increased water scarcity. And at 5 degrees global warming almost all ice-free land might be affected by ecosystem change.
“We managed to quantify a number of crucial impacts of climate change on the global land area,” says Dieter Gerten, lead-author of one of the studies. Mean global warming of 2 degrees, the target set by the international community, is projected to expose an additional 8 percent of humankind to new or increased water scarcity. 3.5 degrees — likely to occur if national emissions reductions remain at currently pledged levels — would affect 11 percent of the world population. 5 degrees could raise this even further to 13 percent.
“If population growth continues, by the end of our century under a business-as-usual scenario these figures would equate to well over one billion lives touched,” Gerten points out. “And this is on top of the more than one billion people already living in water-scarce regions today.” Parts of Asia and North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Middle East are particularly vulnerable.
“The area at risk of ecosystem transformation is expected to double between global warming of about 3 and 4 degrees,” says Lila Warszawski, lead author of another study that systematically compared different impact models — and the associated uncertainties — in order to gain a fuller picture of the possible consequences of climate change for natural ecosystems. This is part of the international Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP).
A warming of 5 degrees, likely to happen in the next century if climate change goes on unabated, would put nearly all terrestrial natural ecosystems at risk of severe change. “So despite the uncertainties, the findings clearly demonstrate that there is a large difference in the risk of global ecosystem change under a scenario of no climate change mitigation compared to one of ambitious mitigation,” says Sebastian Ostberg, lead author of the third study.