Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday:
84 Lihue, Kauai
86 Honolulu, Oahu
91 Kahului, Maui - record highest temperature for October 1 – 92 in 1986, 1996
87 Kona, Hawaii
86 Hilo, Hawaii
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 543pm Tuesday evening:
Kahului, Maui - 86
Hana airport, Maui – 77
Haleakala Summit – 52 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 48 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions. Here’s the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui – if it’s working.
Our trade winds will be light to moderately strong, showers will be
locally active, heavy at times around Kauai…
chance of a thundershower
Localized volcanic haze (vog)
The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Tuesday evening:
22 Waimea Heights, Kauai – SE
30 Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
29 Molokai – E
30 Lanai – NE
36 Kahoolawe – E
29 Kapalua, Maui – NE
32 South Point, Big Island – NE
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday evening:
6.79 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
2.70 Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.10 Hana airport, Maui
0.62 Piihonua, Big Island
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Our local trade winds will be light to moderately strong…with locally higher gusts. Here’s a weather chart showing two near 1026 millibar high pressure centers to the north-northeast and northeast. It will likely take until the weekend, or even early next week, before we see stronger trade winds blowing. The winds will be light enough, at least locally, perhaps with even daytime sea breezes…that we’ll be feeling somewhat muggy for a few more days. The breezes have just enough southeast in them, that volcanic haze is being carried from the vents on the Big Islands…to the smaller islands up the chain locally.
There will be localized showers, although the threat of heavy showers will be easing into mid-week. Satellite imagery shows low clouds over some parts of the island chain. At the same time, we see a large area of brighter white, towering cumulus and thunderstorms over the ocean to the south of Oahu and Kauai. Here’s the looping radar image, showing light to moderate, and even a few heavy showers moving by, mostly over the offshore waters, arriving over the islands locally too. The area of thunderstorms to our southwest, may send showers over Kauai, which has the best chance of showers tonight.
In sum: The presence of a low pressure area over the ocean near Kauai, will keep the atmosphere unstable for a while longer, prompting locally heavy showers…with thunderstorms over the ocean to our southwest. This satellite image, at least at the time of this writing, shows an amazingly large clump of thunderstorms not far to the southwest of the state of Hawaii! This unsettled weather pattern will gradually ease up however, as the responsible area of low pressure migrates slowly away towards the west. The trade winds won’t gain their full strength for several more days, as the wind producing high pressure system to our northeast, moves away further east. Thus, we’re going to be feeling rather hot and muggy, and our atmosphere will remain a bit hazy (volcanic in origin) for another day or so too. ~~~ By the way, I’ll be taking my autumn vacation later this month, I’ll have more to say about it, but at least wanted to give you a heads up. As always, the daily f0recasts for all areas in the state, will remain available in my absence. I’ll be back with your next new weather narrative early Wednesday morning, I hope you have a great Tuesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
Atlantic Ocean: Tropical storm 11L (Jerry) remains active in the central Atlantic. Here’s the NHC graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS DISORGANIZED. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western Pacific Ocean: Tropical storm 21W (Sepat) is dissipating in the northwest Pacific. Here’s a JTWC graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image – Final Warning
Tropical storm 22W (Fitow) is active over the Philippine Sea. Here’s a JTWC graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC
Interesting: Climate change pushing tropical trees upslope ‘exactly as predicted’ - Tropical tree communities are moving up mountainsides to cooler habitats as temperatures rise, a new study in Global Change Biology has found. By examining the tree species present in ten one-hectare plots at various intervals over a decade, researchers found that the proportion of lowland species increased in the plots at higher elevations. The study, which was undertaken in Volcan Barva, Costa Rica, adds to a growing body of evidence that climate change is having an impact on species range distributions.
As climate change leads to warmer temperatures, species must respond if they are to survive. One way to do this is to migrate to new habitats that become suitable (and away from old ones that become unsuitable); another way is to adapt to hotter temperatures, but the speed of climate change may be too fast for some species to evolve to keep up. In some cases, if their physiology permits it, species may be capable of tolerating increases in temperature, but the likelihood of this is unknown.
The researchers first turned to herbarium records to calculate the preferred temperature of thousands of tree species, by looking at the geographic location of sampling locations and the temperature ranges they encompassed. With the temperature preferences for each species known, it was then possible to calculate a ‘community temperature score’ for each of the ten study plots, by averaging the preferred temperatures of all species present. A high community temperature score indicated an abundance of species found in the hot lowlands, whereas a low community temperature score reflected the presence of high altitude species from cooler habitats.
Plots were monitored over the course of a decade, and in nine of the ten plots the community temperature score increased. This indicates a shift in species composition, with the relative abundance of lowland species increasing over time “exactly as predicted under climate-driven upward species migrations,” Kenneth Feeley, lead author of the study with Florida International University and Fairchild Tropical Botanic Garden, told mongabay.com.
These changes corresponded to a mean thermal migration rate of 0.0065°C per year. However, over the past 60 years regional warming has been 0.0167°C per year, so the average migration rate observed across plots is not fast enough to keep up with the rate of warming. Still, encouragingly, when looked at individually, migration in 4 of the 10 plots did keep pace with regional warming.