Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday:
86 Lihue, Kauai
88 Honolulu, Oahu
87 Kahului, Maui
86 Kona, Hawaii
86 Hilo, Hawaii
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 743pm Wednesday evening:
Port Allen, Kauai – 81
Hilo, Hawaii – 76
Haleakala Summit – M (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 41 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions. Here’s the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui – if it’s working.
Our local trade winds will remain active…although remain
lighter than usual through early Saturday
Windward showers mostly at night…leeward upcountry
showers Thursday-Friday afternoons as well
The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Wednesday evening:
17 Poipu, Kauai – NE
30 Kuaokala, Oahu – N
21 Molokai – NNE
23 Lanai – NE
21 Kahoolawe – E
16 Lipoa, Maui – NE
29 South Point, Big Island – ENE
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Wednesday evening:
0.82 Puu Opae, Kauai
0.54 Waianae Valley, Oahu
0.24 Ulupalakua, Maui
0.11 Ahumoa, Big Island
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
The trade winds will be lighter now through Friday…rebounding some during the weekend. Here’s a weather chart showing a near 1024 millibar high pressure system located to the northeast of the islands…and a weaker near 1019 millibar cell a short ways to the northwest of Kauai. The forecast calls for our winds remaining on the lighter side through Friday…recovering to some degree by the weekend into early next week.
A few windward showers, mostly during the night and early mornings…with interior clouds and upcountry afternoon showers locally into Friday. Satellite imagery scattered low level clouds over the ocean to our northeast. Here’s the looping radar image, showing generally light to moderate showers offshore of the islands. As the clouds to our northeast and east arrive at times, we’ll find shower activity along our windward coasts and slopes. As the trade winds ease up during this second half of the week, we should see an increase in afternoon upcountry clouds and showers. As we push into the weekend, we may see tropical moisture arriving along our windward sides this weekend.
Reflections from Maui: Here on Maui this evening, skies were clear to partly cloudy, to mostly cloudy…depending upon location. The air temperature here in Kula at 520pm was 71.8F degrees, with light rain falling. Meanwhile, down at the airport in Kahului, it was clear to partly cloudy at about the same time, and a warmer 85 degrees. The radar link above shows the most generous showers moving offshore to the southwest of Oahu and Kauai…with a few elsewhere. As I’ve been noting the last couple of days, it will be interesting to see if the models are correct, in their suggestions that an area of tropical moisture will ride up into the windward sides this weekend, and there could be a few heavy showers. I’ll be back with your next new weather narrative early Thursday morning, I hope you have a great Wednesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS…
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS…AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE…NEAR 0 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Caribbean Sea: Tropical storm 07L (Gabrielle) remains active in the Caribbean Sea. Here’s the National Hurricane Center’s graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this system.
Here’s a looping radar image of tropical storm Gabrielle
Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT..IF ANY…WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…20
PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS…AND A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT… OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Here’s a satellite image of both TS Gabrielle and the rest of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH LAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this area being called Invest 99E
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: A Tsunami in Philadelphia? – Could the city of Philadelphia get hit by a Tsunami? It’s not in a coastal environment, and even if it were, the eastern US is not exactly the earthquake capital of the world.
Good thing that the US Geological Survey thinks about such things.
A newly published paper concludes that a modest (one-foot) tsunami-like event on the East Coast was generated in the past by a large offshore earthquake. This result may have potential ramifications for emergency management professionals, government officials, businesses and the general public.
Early in the morning of Jan. 8, 1817, earthquake shaking was felt along the Atlantic seaboard as far north as Baltimore, Md., and at least as far south as Charleston, S.C. Later that morning, a keen observer documented an abrupt rise in the tide on the Delaware River near Philadelphia, commenting on the earthquake felt earlier to the south, and remarking that the tidal swell was most likely “the reverberation or concussion of the earth operating on the watery element.”
Scientists have previously interpreted this earthquake to have a magnitude around 6 and a location somewhere in the Carolinas or slightly offshore. In a new study, USGS research geophysicist Susan Hough and colleagues reconsider the accounts of shaking and, for the first time, consider in detail the Delaware River account. They show that the combined observations point to a larger magnitude and a location farther offshore than previously believed. In particular, they show that a magnitude-7.4 earthquake located 400-500 miles off South Carolina or Georgia could have generated a tsunami wave large enough to account for the tidal swell on the Delaware. Using new computer-assisted research techniques, they uncover first-hand accounts from newspapers and ships’ logs that give a wider perspective on the 1817 event. Notably, the predicted timing of such a tsunami wave from this location matches the documented timing in the eyewitness account.
The USGS monitors earthquakes offshore, and in recent years has undertaken research to better understand shaking and tsunami hazard from offshore earthquakes and landslides. Scientific understanding of faults and geological processes in this part of the Atlantic is limited. Still, it has long been understood that large, infrequent offshore earthquakes may pose a tsunami hazard to the Atlantic coast. In 1978, a magnitude-6 earthquake occurred roughly 240 miles southwest of Bermuda, even farther offshore than the inferred location of the 1817 earthquake. In 1929, the magnitude-7.2 Grand Banks, Newfoundland, earthquake triggered a submarine landslide that generated a large tsunami. Waves 10-13 feet high struck the Newfoundland coast, killing 29 people and leaving 10,000 temporarily homeless.