Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday:
85 Lihue, Kauai
88 Honolulu, Oahu
89 Kahului, Maui
87 Kona, Hawaii
87 Hilo, Hawaii
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 810pm Tuesday evening:
Kailua Kona – 81
Hana airport, Maui – 73
Haleakala Summit – M (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – M (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions. Here’s the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui – if it’s working.
Typical late summer, trade wind weather pattern…with
moderate winds blowing into mid-week
Mostly windward showers…not many leeward sides
The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Tuesday evening:
27 Port Allen, Kauai – NE
36 Makua Range, Oahu – SE
25 Molokai – ENE
31 Lanai – NE
29 Kahoolawe – ESE
31 Kahului, Maui – NE
32 PTA West, Big Island – NE
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Tuesday evening:
0.18 Kilohana, Kauai
0.08 Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.28 Puu Kukui, Maui
0.06 Kahua Ranch, Big Island
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
The trade winds will be moderately strong…dropping some during the second half of this work week. Here’s a weather chart showing a near 1027 millibar high pressure system located far to the northwest of the islands…which is moving into the area of north of the islands. At the same time, we find a couple of early season cold fronts over the ocean to the north of the state. These frontal boundaries will disrupt our trade winds over the next several days. We’ll find moderate trades blowing Wednesday, weakening a notch Thursday into Friday…then increasing again as we get into the weekend.
Windward showers at times through mid-week, then back to normal amounts. Satellite imagery shows generally small areas of low level clouds…mostly over the ocean to the northeast of the islands. The clouds upstream will be carried our way on the trades, bringing a few showers at times. At the same time, we see the cirrus clouds coming off of an area of disturbed weather to our south-southwest. Here’s the looping radar image, showing a few showers moving across the the windward sides of the islands, although nothing unusual at the time of this writing. Our weather tonight into Wednesday will continue to be favorable, with just those showers arriving along our north and east facing windward coasts and slopes.
Reflections from Maui: Here on Maui this evening there are clear to partly cloudy skies. The air temperature here in Kula at 520pm, under partly cloudy skies, was 79.3F degrees. While down at the airport in Kahului, it was mostly sunny at the same time, with a warmer 85 degrees. Glancing around in all directions, from here in my Kula weather tower, I see most of the clouds before sunset capping the mountains…while the beach areas are quite sunny and dry. I’ll be back with your next new weather narrative early Wednesday morning, I hope you have a great Tuesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Tuesday Poem by Billy Collins…As If to Demonstrate an Eclipse
I pick an orange from a wicker basket
and place it on the table
to represent the sun.
Then down at the other end
a blue and white marble
becomes the earth
and nearby I lay the little moon of an aspirin.
I get a glass from a cabinet,
open a bottle of wine,
then I sit in a ladder-back chair,
a benevolent god presiding
over a miniature creation myth,
and I begin to sing
a homemade canticle of thanks
for this perfect little arrangement,
for not making the earth too hot or cold
not making it spin too fast or slow
so that the grove of orange trees
and the owl become possible,
not to mention the rolling wave,
the play of clouds, geese in flight,
and the Z of lightning on a dark lake.
Then I fill my glass again
and give thanks for the trout,
the oak, and the yellow feather,
singing the room full of shadows,
as sun and earth and moon
circle one another in their impeccable orbits
and I get more and more cockeyed with gratitude.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
Atlantic Ocean: Tropical storm 09L (Humberto) remains active in the far eastern Atlantic. Here’s the National Hurricane Center’s graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this system.
Tropical storm 07L (Gabrielle) is now active in the Atlantic. Here’s the National Hurricane Center’s graphical track map…along with a NOAA satellite image. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this system.
Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND BELIZE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND TODAY AND ENTER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON THURSDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE
SYSTEM EMERGES OVER WATER…AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…
30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ASSUMING THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE… UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK…AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE…70 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE…GUATEMALA…AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE
OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…
NEAR 0 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
An area of showers and thunderstorms about 520 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii, was associated with a weak center of low pressure in the intertropical convergence zone. Upper-level winds have produced an environment not likely to allow significant development during the next 48 hours. There is a low chance, near zero percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Here’s a satellite image showing this area of disturbed weather.
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Western Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: New data from NASA’s Jason-2 satellite show near-normal sea surface heights in the equatorial Pacific Ocean persisting for a 16th straight month. New remote sensing data from NASA’s Jason-2 satellite show near-normal sea-surface height conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This neutral, or “La Nada” event, has stubbornly persisted for 16 months, since spring 2012. Models suggest this pattern will continue through the spring of 2014, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.
“Without an El Niño or La Niña signal present, other, less predictable, climatic factors will govern fall, winter and spring weather conditions,” said climatologist Bill Patzert of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. “Long-range forecasts are most successful during El Niño and La Niña episodes. The ‘in between’ ocean state, La Nada, is the dominant condition, and is frustrating for long-range forecasters. It’s like driving without a decent road map — it makes forecasting difficult.”
For the past several decades, about half of all years have experienced La Nada conditions, compared to about 20 percent for El Niño and 30 percent for La Niña.
Patzert noted that some of the wettest and driest winters occur during La Nada periods.
“Neutral infers something benign, but in fact if you look at these La Nada years when neither El Niño nor La Niña are present, they can be the most volatile and punishing. As an example, the continuing, deepening drought in the American West is far from ‘neutral,'” he said.
The height of the sea water relates, in part, to its temperature, and thus is an indicator of the amount of heat stored in the ocean below. As the ocean warms, its level rises; as it cools, its level falls. Yellow and red areas indicate where the waters are relatively warmer and have expanded above normal sea level, while green (which dominates in this image) indicates near-normal sea level, and blue and purple areas show where the waters are relatively colder and sea level is lower than normal. Above-normal height variations along the equatorial Pacific indicate El Niño conditions, while below-normal height variations indicate La Niña conditions. The temperature of the upper ocean can have a significant influence on weather patterns and climate.
NASA scientists will continue to monitor this persistent La Nada event to see what the Pacific Ocean has in store next for the world’s climate.